Climate change deniers are constantly turning a blind eye, but the consequences of these degradations are constantly emerging. One of them is increased turbulence – and no, this is not based solely on the subjective assessments of passengers, although they are more than relevant. What awaits us in the future and which air routes are the most dangerous?, writes N1.
They could even triple.
Studies show that turbulence is worsening in both frequency and intensity, a trend largely attributed to climate change. Scientists have confirmed that the skies above busy air routes, especially over the North Atlantic and the United States, are significantly "unsettled" than they were a few decades ago.
The study, which remains the most relevant, from 2023, entitled "Evidence for a large increase in clear-air turbulence over the past four decades" found that the total annual duration of severe clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020. Over the continental US, the number of dangerous incidents increased by 41%.
Scientists Mark Prosser, Paul Williams, Graham Marlton i Giles Harrison They published their research in the prestigious journal Geophysical Research Letters, and the study predicts that the amount of severe turbulence could double or triple in the coming decades if current trends continue. global warming trends classes.
Climate change and futile warnings
The primary driver is climate change, as confirmed by a study that directly analyzed 40 years of atmospheric data, finding significant increases along air routes over the US and the North Atlantic, consistent with the effects of climate change.
Why is climate change the main cause of increased turbulence?
As the study states, this is because warmer air, created by carbon dioxide emissions, increases wind shear in the jet streams. Greenhouse gases trap heat in the lower layers of the atmosphere, making them warmer. At the same time, less heat escapes to the upper layers of the atmosphere, making them cooler.
All of this results in greater temperature differences, stronger wind shear and the formation of clear-air turbulence (an invisible type of turbulence) that cannot be detected by aircraft radar. It often appears suddenly, in clear skies, leading to a greater risk of injury to passengers and crew members who are not restrained, the researchers said.
"Uneven pockets of air"
The prediction that severe turbulence could double or triple in the coming decades stems from earlier research led by Professor Paul Williamwith the name "Regional changes in jet stream turbulence in response to climate change". That study used climate modeling to project future trends under a high-emissions scenario. It concluded that turbulence severe enough to cause injury could double or even triple its frequency globally by the end of the century.
Back in 2017, Time magazine reported on a gloomy forecast from the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which said that global warming could lead to more turbulence during flights due to greater wind instability at high altitudes. This would mean that “uneven pockets” of air would become significantly more common.
According to these estimates, at an altitude of 11.500 meters, severe turbulence would increase by:
181% over the North Atlantic
161% above Europe
113% above North America
92% over the North Pacific
64% above Asia
62% above South America
53% above Australia
51% above Africa
Figuratively speaking, those who are already on the verge of a fear of flying could soon easily opt for a car or a boat.
Research by the University of Reading
Scientists at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom studied clear-air turbulence in 2023 (a study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters) and found that it had increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020 on the typically busy North Atlantic route. They attributed the increase to changes in wind speed at high altitudes caused by warmer air due to carbon emissions.
Summer routes in the US and over the North Atlantic saw the biggest increases. Europe, the Middle East and the South Atlantic also saw significant increases in turbulence.
With this came financial costs: the US airline industry loses between $150 million and $500 million annually due to the effects of turbulence. The environmental cost is further compounded as pilots, trying to avoid turbulence, burn more fuel – exacerbating the problem.
It is estimated that turbulence costs the airline industry at least $200 million per year in the U.S. alone., according to data presented by an aviation expert back in 2003 Harvey Eichenbaum in the publication "Historical Review of Turbulence-Induced Accidents and Case Study Analysis".
The costs are due to additional fatigue of the aircraft fuselage and occasional damage. In addition, passengers and crew suffer injuries, some requiring expensive hospital treatment.
Moderate to extreme turbulence occurs tens of thousands of times a year around the world and, in severe cases, can cause structural damage to aircraft, temporary loss of control, and injuries. According to the US National Transportation Safety Board, turbulence caused more than 200 serious injuries in the US alone between 2009 and 2024.
Stormy summer 2025.
Although it is difficult to accurately compare data for each individual summer, this year's summer months fit into the trend of increased turbulence observed in recent years due to climate change. Turbulence is becoming more frequent and stronger, especially in clear air.
An Airbus A330-900 en route from Salt Lake City to Amsterdam encountered severe turbulence in clear air over the North Atlantic, forcing it to make an emergency turn toward Minneapolis. The sudden and violent air movement injured 25 people, many of whom were cabin crew members serving meals at the time.
A flight from Miami to Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, experienced unexpected turbulence, injuring five people, while a flight from Berlin to Milan encountered severe turbulence over southern Germany due to intense thunderstorms and made an emergency landing in Memmingen. Epilogue: nine injured.
A 73-year-old man died of a heart attack during severe turbulence on a flight from London to Singapore last year… The examples are countless.
"Flights to Avoid"
Turbulence forecasting website Trouble analyzed more than 10.000 flight paths, using data from sources such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the UK Met Office, to rank the world's most turbulent routes.
The aim was to show people that although turbulence appears chaotic, it follows certain patterns – perhaps as a naive attempt to give passengers at least a semblance of control.
Most of the most problematic flights are in South America and Asia. The route is about 400 kilometers long between the Japanese cities of Natori and Tokoname It is one of the most turbulent in Asia due to jet streams and pronounced temperature differences, as cold air from Siberia and warm air from the Pacific Ocean currents meet over Japan. The list also includes long flights over the Indian Ocean.
Most of the world's ten most turbulent routes involve mountains – the Andes, the longest land-based mountain range on Earth, and the Himalayas. Air behaves like water in a river: when it flows smoothly without obstacles, everything is calm, but when it encounters an obstacle, such as a rock, it becomes turbulent. Mountains and storms act like such obstacles, changing the movement of the air.
In the United States, the roughest air routes include flights that cross the Rocky Mountains between Denver and Salt Lake City. The situation is similar in Europe, where many of the most turbulent routes are over the Alps, as planes fly between France, Italy and Switzerland, according to Turbli.
Source: N1
Photo: Pixabay
