Croatia remains a safe and stable democracy, despite a challenging and unstable security environment at the global and European level, according to this year's public report by the Security Intelligence Agency (SOA) published on Sunday.
The report emphasizes that there is no direct threat to Croatian territory and citizens, although intense global political and security turmoil is strongly affecting the country's social and economic environment.
The past year was marked by a complex and uncertain security environment, exacerbated by Russian aggression in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East.
The consequences of the war in Ukraine are being felt globally, affecting Europe's security architecture and highlighting the need to strengthen European defense capabilities and independence, especially in energy and strategic industries.
The SOA points out that this is supported by the decisions of Sweden and Finland, which abandoned the policy of neutrality and joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Threats of terrorism and extremism
The risk of organized terrorist attacks in Croatia is assessed as low, but no country is completely exempt.
The main source of threat in Europe remains Islamic extremism, with an increased number of young and underage individuals vulnerable to radicalisation, often through online propaganda.
Jihadist attacks have been recorded in neighboring countries, while in the Western Balkans, a significant number of former members of terrorist organizations have been released after serving short sentences.
The potential for the spread of extremism among young people in Croatia continues to require attention, even though society traditionally rejects all forms of extremism, concludes SOA.
Cybersecurity, ointelligence operations and foreign threats
They state that cyber threats are constantly increasing, which confirms the increase in state and organized attacks on Croatian institutions, so 38 such cases were recorded in 2024, which is the most so far.
The primary goal of these attacks is espionage and theft of data important to national security, and the most common targets are government bodies and critical infrastructure.
They also point out that at the beginning of 2024, the SOA became the central national authority for cybersecurity, so the National Cybersecurity Center coordinates the protection of the information space.
Intelligence activities towards Croatia and other EU countries include espionage, sabotage and attempts at destabilization through influence operations, especially from Russian sources. According to the SOA, the goal is to make international aid to Ukraine more difficult, but also to spread fear and mistrust towards NATO and the EU.
Organized crime and migration, the instability of the Western Balkans
They also state that organized groups from the Western Balkans, especially "Serbian-Montenegrin" criminal groups, participate in international drug smuggling, often using violent methods.
Illegal migration, they add, remains intense under the influence of global instability, while the lack of identification documents among most illegal migrants increases security risks, including the danger of infiltration by extremists and criminals.
At the same time, the stability of the Western Balkans region is of crucial importance to Croatia. Unresolved political and security disputes remain, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina, related to the electoral legitimacy of Croats, but also to the strengthening of Serbia's influence through the promotion of the concept of a "Serbian world".
They also expressed concern about the poor treatment of Croatian citizens in Serbia, who were declared spies during protests against the government in that country and were expelled or denied entry at the border.
In Montenegro, SOA points out, there is a split between pro-European and pro-Russian options, while radical parties are increasingly shaping the political scene. The political influence of the Serbian Orthodox Church, which is strongly linked to Russia, has also increased, especially in the processes of linking up with Republika Srpska and Serbia.
SOA activities and supervision
In 2024, SOA conducted more than 6200 security checks, 551 security assessments, and more than 108.000 checks on foreigners. It collected data on missing persons from the Homeland War and cooperated with international partners to protect European security.
The work of the SOA is under constant parliamentary, professional and civil supervision, with additional judicial control, and Croatia, as pointed out, achieves high standards of transparency in the security and intelligence sector.
Global economic developments and trends, according to SOA, strongly influence Croatia's economic security.
Transport and energy capacities such as Adriatic ports and the LNG terminal on Krk are crucial, strengthening European energy independence and ensuring Croatia's strategic position in the European security architecture.
Photo: HINA/Lana SLIVAR DOMINIĆ
